The authors of The Energy Reader, Tom Butler, Daniel
Lerch, and George Wuerthner, posit that our energy crisis cannot be solved
merely, or even mostly, by transitioning to non-fossil fuel energy sources and
by technoscientific innovation. Their thesis
is that no matter what we do, our growth makes relying on any current or
yet-to-be-discovered energy sources impossible.
But is this truly the case?
Butler, Lerch, and Wuerthner explain why alternative energy sources like
renewables and nuclear have many issues that would make relying on them
difficult – low Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI), intermittency, lack
of infrastructure, difficulty with storage.
However, they did not provide sufficient evidence that these sources,
combined with one another and with further innovation in both obtaining energy
and using it efficiently, cannot provide the amount of energy that our world
currently uses, or will use in the near future.
In order to be convinced that this is the case, I would need to hear
about countries that had maxed out their usage of alternative energy sources
and still could not use them to obtain 100% of their energy. Of course, this does not mean that I am
convinced that these sources (combined with innovations) can avert the crisis
without drastic population reduction. I
believe that it remains to be seen.
At this point, I agree with Butler, Lerch, and Wuerthner
that continued exponential population growth is not feasible, but I think we
can do more with alternative energy sources than they give us credit for. I think that if we make appropriate changes
in infrastructure and make more discoveries, we can serve the world’s energy
needs for a while to come, even accounting for the fact that countries that
currently do not use much energy (such as those in Africa) will most likely
increase their energy usage. It’s
important to solve the population problem, but I think that alternative energy
sources can buy us time to do that, and we are not necessarily destined for
disaster. Population is actually going
down in many industrialized countries, so it is reasonable to guess that when
currently nonindustrialized countries become industrialized, their populations
will also decrease. So it may be that the
problem of population will in some sense solve itself. Though, of course, we cannot assume that, and
must apply the precautionary principle to the idea of choosing not to do
anything active about overpopulation (and, in general, should apply to precautionary
principle not only to projects we are considering starting, but also to
continuing to do business as usual).
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